The emission limit for greenhouse gases is 2900 gigawatts, which allows maintaining the increase in the global average temperature below 2 degrees Celsius as compared to the pre-industrial temperature. Given the continued increase in emissions, the global average temperature may rise by 2.9-3.4 degrees by 2100.
Armenia's impact on the global climate system is negligible, and the country's share of global emissions is only 0.014%. Armenia is considered a vulnerable country in terms of climate change. The temperature rise in Armenia is higher than the global average. Only from 1929 to 2016 did the average annual temperature rise by 1.23 degrees (compared to 1961-1990) (Figure 1).
In paralle with the temperature rise, average annual precipitation declined by 9% between 1935 and 2016.
Figure 1. Temperature deviations
Figure 2. Precipitation deviations
Climate change in Armenia is developing with unfavorable scenarios.
Thus, according to the Third National Communication on Climate change, the forecasts are as follows:
• the aggregate volume of river flow in the territory of Armenia will decrease by 11.9% by 2030, by 24% by 2070, and 37.8% by 2100 (compared to the 1961- 1990 baseline period),
• areas of more valuable alpine and sub-alpine grazing land will be reduced by 19 and 22% respectively, while semi-desert and meadow-steppe areas will increase by 17%,
• a shift in boundaries associated with the development and spread of other ecosystems, forest wildfires, diseases and mass generation of pests that may lead to 14 to 17 thousand hectares of forest loss by 2030,
• agro-climatic zones will shift 100 m upward by 2030, and 200-400 m by 2100,
• as a result of the projected temperature rise and intensification of evaporation of moisture from the soil surface, the additional demand for irrigation water will total about 202 million m3.
The Government of Armenia approved INDC committing itself to limit greenhouse gas emissions to 633 million tonnes over 35 years, and set a long-term goal to increase the area of forested areas by 20.1%.
Particular importance is attached to climate change adaptation measures. The National Adaptation Program is being developed within the frames Green Climate Fund grant of US $ 2,999,593.00 through the UNDP.
14:35 March 18, 2020